Why tech faces a long, painful fallout from Iran

00:00:00: Yeah, and so this changes the equation of the power dynamics both between countries.

00:00:06: And also between companies.

00:00:08: right because it used to be if you have to have giant data centers You need just spend billions or tens of millions hundreds of billions to be a player.

00:00:15: now anybody with a laptop in their basement can Be a player.

00:00:22: Welcome to The Big Bang Tech Report where we explore the technologies reshaping business Power & Society.

00:00:31: Great to see you.

00:00:32: Yes, always good.

00:00:33: with so much going on in the world I'm looking forward to a chat today.

00:00:37: Oh yeah that's incredible is not?

00:00:40: i would say well wanted to say amazing but it's.

00:00:44: It's.

00:00:45: first, it's incredible and sometimes it's horrible.

00:00:48: So let's start with a topic that suddenly feels very immediate for us all With the current US Iran escalation.

00:00:57: sending is sending shockwaves through energy markets supply chains stock market cyber risks.

00:01:03: And what does this conflict mean to the global tech industry?

00:01:09: Yeah, so I mean.

00:01:10: I know everybody's very concerned on the geopolitical side But but you're given that our report is about technology?

00:01:15: I think it's important That we try to give a different light to that information.

00:01:20: You know We've been talking about how energy Is the key for making AI work and i think that The disruption to energy is actually really important because what it shows us at?

00:01:31: you know petroleum as something that is Not necessarily most dependable form of energy And so the things that has been happening over last few years of clean energy, solar wind and nuclear which a lot places have discounted is now going to be increasingly important because it's something local controllable available.

00:01:55: Increasingly cheap actually!

00:01:57: So I think this is interesting.

00:02:00: The other thing just happened in recent days was bombing data centers.

00:02:07: What that does is it shows data centers are now an asset around the world.

00:02:15: That could be targeted in case there's different types of conflict, which if you're going to be spending something like six or eight hundred billion dollars this year on new data centers.

00:02:28: This is a very, lots of potential targets and in this happening around the world where you know companies and countries are building datacenters everywhere so that is a concern.

00:02:39: In fact I think there's going to be a reduction in datacenter production particularly in US because lot those datacentre were invested or funded at least by Gulf states And right now, a lot of the money is actually being pulled back.

00:02:54: They're saying hey you know we have a force majeure We cannot You put money out right?

00:03:00: Now we needed to rebuild our own countries or whatever.

00:03:02: so I think that changes a lot Of the equation in terms of how the buildouts are going to happen.

00:03:10: Also, transportation without all the disruption to oil.

00:03:14: Transportation is going get more expensive which means everything that gets shipped around the world.

00:03:18: All of those computers and machines and cars will also be much more expensive.

00:03:23: That's going affect almost every aspect in our lives.

00:03:28: So there are a lot more impact on this than people realize.

00:03:32: Yeah,

00:03:33: normally we say on that or the question is for this for growth in AI grows.

00:03:40: The challenge is energy.

00:03:42: you need a lot of energy For the chips and for those factories and all these stuff You know.

00:03:48: So do you think that this conflict?

00:03:50: Is it question off AI to office AI challenge too neat.

00:03:55: A lot of Energy.

00:03:57: yeah I mean III think.

00:03:58: no year ago people used to think having chips as the key And in the last three to six months, people have moved to saying having enough energy is a key because now you have chips and can't turn them on.

00:04:09: There's a lot of data centers that are waiting for it so they don't have enough generators or just power access.

00:04:16: So your investing billions of dollars into chips sitting there being depreciated.

00:04:24: The AI race is highlighting the importance On the global basis, China really has a lead on that.

00:04:35: They're building so much clean energy.

00:04:37: in fact every two years they can rebuild and clean energy to entire power generation of the United States.

00:04:43: This is it's amazing.

00:04:45: It was more or less strategic decision to conquer Iran because this energy question?

00:04:54: I don't think so.

00:04:56: You know, i'm not a geopolitical analyst but from what ive seen and also the people that I've talked to who are looking at this it is more of an issue than a factor in technology.

00:05:13: Some people are saying that it may be even related to closing down oil for China, taking away both the Venezuelan oil as well as Iranian oil.

00:05:22: That brings down their Chinese economy.

00:05:25: I feel might a little bit of conspiracy theory.

00:05:29: there's just more direct reasons why this is probably happening and has deal with Israel than anything

00:05:37: else.

00:05:38: The last, well I think it was the last Gulf War.

00:05:40: It's only for a few days you know?

00:05:46: And we wanted to write cover story and when were producing.

00:05:49: this war is almost over.

00:05:51: Do You Think This War Will Be Over In A Few Days?

00:05:56: What Is Plan B If Not?

00:05:59: Well Clearly This Is Different Type Of War.

00:06:09: I think it's the way that was designed.

00:06:10: On first day you killed a supreme leader and probably also familiar with Muslim religion, importance of what signifies how unifies people.

00:06:29: You are destroying a particular location where nuclear energy or nuclear bombs might have been refined.

00:06:35: But that's topical, this is around faith and around the culture.

00:06:44: I think it will be very difficult for us to end quickly.

00:06:49: In fact i'm surprised America decided to agree with strategy because into another endless war that we've had multiple over the last few decades.

00:07:03: And I would have thought you would have learned from that, but it feels like there's a little too much influence in terms of Israeli strategy on U.S actions.

00:07:16: But it has to end because of the markets.

00:07:20: The Western couldn't afford that.

00:07:23: we have for months such a situation.

00:07:26: if there is no energy anymore, they will be real big crisis.

00:07:31: Well I think There's A Desire from the US side To want to End It and i think you know That what Trump was trying to say when he sent a message out saying, oh Iran called me to say they wanted to discuss a ceasefire which was supposedly I guess it was complete BS.

00:07:50: But there were more wishful thinking right?

00:07:53: The reality is that for it end both sides have to want it to end.

00:07:56: and Right now um i think There's there's a greater desire on the side of the U.S To see an end quickly than there Is On the Side Of Iranians.

00:08:05: in fact the Iranian Probably Wanted to Have America Send you know, troops send boots on the ground because when that happens Iran actually has a bigger advantage.

00:08:16: You know this is what happened in Vietnam.

00:08:18: This Is What Happened In Afghanistan.

00:08:20: It does not end well for America and it's big draw On Its Capabilities.

00:08:26: But we'll see if The US Is Smart Enough To Stay Away From That Type Of A Decision.

00:08:32: So What Is Your Advice?

00:08:36: I don't know if i'm in the position to advise.

00:08:39: But, uh...I think that the faster you can end this and maybe even unilaterally stop We made a mistake.

00:08:48: That's probably the best thing for America to do, because at the end of day right now it is running low on munitions and all defense systems.

00:08:57: The energy has been shut down in many parts of Europe.

00:09:03: It will be disaster for life and economy And also reputation For America.

00:09:15: And I've read in the news that they asked for help from Ukraine with drones, with drone technology.

00:09:22: Yeah?

00:09:25: It's a little bit flipping of this scenario and we know what happened a few months ago when Zelensky went to visit Trump.

00:09:33: now kind flip the other way.

00:09:38: yeah i don't know if even helps right because you know it.

00:09:41: drones What.

00:09:44: what they need right now is actually They need the more more missiles for anti missile missiles, right?

00:09:51: And and they just can't make them I mean America's manufacturing capabilities are in maybe The hundreds of these a year.

00:09:59: And Iran has something like tens or thousands of missiles that it can send out and It takes several counter-anti missiles to get one attacking missile.

00:10:10: So the ratio is just not there, and the costs of Iranian drones or missiles are in tens-of-thousands or maybe low millions for big missiles whereas

00:10:23: U.S.,

00:10:24: they're going to spend millions per thousands of cost.

00:10:30: so it's a war that you cannot win right?

00:10:36: It's.

00:10:38: But you can really imagine that somebody or maybe mr.

00:10:42: Trump himself your president That he will say I have done a mistake

00:10:48: II don't see it happening.

00:10:49: and particularly with the pride that He has an end with the group around him, that is so sycophantic that they will say whatever he wants to hear.

00:10:57: Which is why?

00:10:58: I'm very disappointed at this started because that's what i think The word gonna keep going Because he does not necessarily Have the Will or the understanding of this situation to do the right thing.

00:11:12: So there are so incredible things going on and one thing you sent me last days was a news from Apple that Apple could be major, not partner enemy maybe competitor of NVIDIA.

00:11:31: Why is it like that?

00:11:32: What Do You Think?

00:11:33: Yeah I mean we talked about this before.

00:11:37: I think it's two different strategies in terms of not necessarily actually just Nvidia, but against.

00:11:43: the current trend is that they've been seen as a company that hasn't spent hundreds of billions on AI.

00:11:55: And people think

00:11:55: they are a bank.

00:11:56: Yeah, and more

00:11:57: or less Apple is the bang.

00:11:58: yeah

00:11:59: But they still have hundreds of billions in the bank that they can spend whatever they want with whereas most Of the other major technology companies Have been spending their free cash flow and you know The reserves on all this new infrastructure build and On the investments for them.

00:12:17: but what they had done?

00:12:18: Is they have built an amazing piece actually an ecosystem of hardware from the phones all the way up to their laptops and PCs, which have the capability to run AI models.

00:12:34: And I think...I don't know if they did it intentionally or they lucked into it but essentially now that with the capabilities from Mali Baba just came out, which is a small model that has two four and nine billion parameters.

00:12:56: but they perform as well the hundred-billion parameter models of other vendors.

00:13:01: So if you can run this directly on your phone not even in the new MacBooks And you can run the full-size Quen or the full size minimax on your laptops now, right?

00:13:12: Which is kind of crazy because that means all these data centers and companies have been investing in becomes a lot less necessary.

00:13:23: Yeah,

00:13:25: and so this changes the equation of the power dynamics both between countries.

00:13:31: And also between companies.

00:13:33: right because it used to be.

00:13:34: if you have to have giant data centers You need just spend billions or tens of billions hundreds of billions To be a player.

00:13:39: now anybody with a laptop in their basement can Be a player.

00:13:44: In fact they've not had just made A new model that you Can now train?

00:13:49: The the quen models on a laptop with only like, I don't know, thirty-two gigabytes of memory.

00:13:57: So essentially any just slightly better than average laptop can start training models.

00:14:01: not

00:14:04: So with your brain and maybe my two laptops, we could be a competitor of ChatGbT.

00:14:10: Is that what you are saying?

00:14:13: Not necessarily ChatGbt in the sense they have an existing user base which takes a lot more money to create but capabilities can offer or services for software providers.

00:14:27: now is small company can start to do that.

00:14:30: In fact, a few episodes ago we talked about the one person company and I think that's now much more valuable than any time ever.

00:14:40: And in fact you know... We were talking about China where in Shenzhen they just want to be essentially the Silicon Valley of China.

00:14:48: Their government has offered a special program To fund & support Open Claw and One Person Companies.

00:14:57: It is kind of crazy It moves so quickly over there that their local government now saying, OK we're going to have this special support program.

00:15:06: If you are a smart guy who has the great idea will give some funding or infrastructure and build your company.

00:15:14: You can just be one founder.

00:15:16: And I think Could you

00:15:21: give us an example?

00:15:22: What could it be if your one person, what kind of product do you produce?

00:15:29: and to convince the market.

00:15:32: Give me some imagination please.

00:15:34: Yeah I think a lot these ideas are just starting so its not clear which would be successful but they can be.

00:15:43: let's say Right, it could be a one person accounting services company.

00:15:50: It could be A One Person Search Engine Optimization Company.

00:15:57: right so lot of these Services.

00:15:58: that now AI.

00:15:59: if you program it properly You can do and it doesn't take a lot a lot of people to Do it for you when tax tax preparation services?

00:16:08: You send me your data.

00:16:08: Advertising,

00:16:09: maybe an advertising company and

00:16:11: advertising copy creation for you out here.

00:16:14: use some of your product.

00:16:15: I'll make you a whole ad campaign.

00:16:17: one person can do that today with the AI tools right.

00:16:21: so So a lot of these services.

00:16:24: First it commoditizes all the big companies.

00:16:27: It's going to be very disruptive.

00:16:29: Two is that in empower small companies or small individuals?

00:16:33: Individuals with with small resources To now think bigger And especially now if you have governments that are behind it and say, okay This is one of our portfolio companies.

00:16:42: That are part of the city plan.

00:16:44: They had credibility because they know at least these company will probably be around for at least a year.

00:16:49: So I can trust working with them whereas it was just yens an albin starts to accompany.

00:16:54: It may not trust that we'll be around in a year.

00:16:56: so so interesting that In an effort to grow local economy then these these local governments were moving so quickly.

00:17:05: Yeah, last year I was in Austin at.

00:17:08: I attended the South by sauce and there is a star.

00:17:13: She's Amy Webb.

00:17:15: And we were listening to her and she told us and hello, Amy We will see each other in a few days.

00:17:23: Yes, um, and she taught us that maybe in In a few months you have a budget may be a one thousand or US dollar, you invest it and use it to the system.

00:17:32: Please I need a script?

00:17:35: I need movie?

00:17:36: I want to have a blockbuster And show me on Monday next monday trailer i can look at.

00:17:45: then I needed soundtrack and merchandising.

00:17:48: all of this will be done by AI and data centers do becomes realistic?

00:17:59: I think if you have a technical savvy founder that is possible with good creativity skills, right.

00:18:08: So so You still need the combination of skills and you still need to check.

00:18:11: i don't think The technology's there To do everything That you just said And to Do it perfectly but It would definitely Make your efficiency go up ten x. so that all you need to do is some minor tweaks and reviews.

00:18:23: And the good news about the current agent's models now, they have built-in memory systems in skill system which means when it starts to learn become smarter or more proficient than whatever skills you want at home.

00:18:40: then start being able copy your capabilities over time.

00:18:44: I think thats the key.

00:18:46: So that means if I'm a director of the movie and I am working a lot with my system The system is becoming smarter and smarter in the movie business, right?

00:18:55: Exactly.

00:18:55: In fact there's these essentially skills MD files That you can create to say okay i'm gonna make it director md dot md file a creative director, or a scriptwriter.md file.

00:19:09: and here the rules that I want you to think about in fact.

00:19:13: go on the internet.

00:19:14: look for all of the writings about how to direct And put those best learnings from The Best Directors In The World.

00:19:22: Make That Your Base Learning.

00:19:23: Then We Can Adjust From Practice.

00:19:26: But that means i'm addicted Or Binded With One System One Day.

00:19:31: No

00:19:33: So This Is A Beauty Of What's Happening Today.

00:19:36: You have all these skills that are in the file, and you can move it to any other model.

00:19:42: In fact your agents should be selecting whatever models they want.

00:19:46: so we talked about OpenClaw.

00:19:49: OpenClock allows you pick a logic model and essentially the .md file gets loaded into context of whatever model you choose.

00:19:57: So today, I mean you might want to use ChatGPT or GPT-V.

00:20:01: tomorrow You may wanna use Opus in your cloud and the next day you might wanna use Minimax because they just came out with a new version right?

00:20:09: And all of your skills stay with you but you find the model that is as smartest most capable and cheapest.

00:20:15: That's actually... The last part it was becoming more important Because agents used so many tokens ten times hundred time more token than using chat And so managing the cost per token becomes much more important.

00:20:28: In fact, open source models are now at least ten times cheaper than closed-source models.

00:20:33: So this is why I don't know if you've looked recently in Open Router The top three out of four most popular models nowadays are open-source Chinese models because they're so much cheaper and there's ninety five percent or ninety eight percent as good.

00:20:47: This is an age for agents.

00:20:51: That cost management makes a huge difference because if you don't manage it well, It could cost you thousands of dollars a day in tokens.

00:20:57: If we managed it well to be tens of dollars today.

00:21:00: But normally with my mindset and if I'm training all the systems out The company have to pay for me or not?

00:21:07: What which company?

00:21:08: what do you mean?

00:21:09: No, well the hyperscaler.

00:21:11: if I do all my brain mindset.

00:21:13: My brain into this system and The System is learning.

00:21:17: they use All my information And then They have to pay me for that or not?

00:21:21: no i mean actually you're Not training.

00:21:23: You're not training the hyper skill.

00:21:24: your training Your own model.

00:21:25: you're training.

00:21:26: your own agent stays with you, you can move it to whatever hyper-scaler, cloud or online model.

00:21:39: This is actually a built asset for the individual versus bringing data into an open AI and Anthropic.

00:21:47: So this is more empowering And you have to pay a little bit in terms of both energy and as well, maybe some token costs for the high-end models.

00:22:00: The high end online models?

00:22:02: I thought that will find with your thoughts on earnings that i'll be rich... With my new system!

00:22:11: It's possible.

00:22:13: there are people who come up with new companies.

00:22:17: they can run by themselves or few others and I think they will be very successful.

00:22:22: But unfortunately, these things are relatively rare right?

00:22:26: And good companies...I think in the age of AI people think oh you know everybody's going to be an entrepreneur.

00:22:34: i just don't see that happening because it is becoming more competitive as a provider for services.

00:22:43: so now margin goes to essentially zero.

00:22:47: But I'm was dreaming of a new job earning money without doing anything like sitting on our lying On the beach and then the money is coming with an helicopter And it will fall down in all this stuff.

00:22:59: And so, I thought within you world You are explaining to me?

00:23:02: I'm coming closer to my vision or to my dream and so on but I have to work still.

00:23:08: i've Still to work for it.

00:23:09: well

00:23:09: no So I think there would be a short period time maybe For The next one two three years where There Will Be arbitrage opportunities where there's a lot of, let's say elderly people who are not tech savvy.

00:23:23: You may be able to offer them service that they don't have access to yet and maybe by the time they figure it out or their grandchildren come in help some install another service.

00:23:34: you still have short period to offer something.

00:23:37: Another thing also possible is doing stock trading.

00:23:41: I remember during the late nineties that day trading was a big thing.

00:23:44: Um, i think for some period people are starting right now to use these AI uh models agents to go online and trade on poly market or tryon options markets Or trade on crypto crypto markets.

00:23:58: Right.

00:23:58: so um And supposedly they're getting good results in you know?

00:24:02: I think Some of it might be hype But again those are also narrow windows when that is available until the market becomes efficient And the more efficient it is, there's less opportunity.

00:24:14: So you see more and more opportunities in the next one to three years?

00:24:18: Opportunities yeah... You told me something that in China something is going on, very interesting with the battery industry.

00:24:28: And for us in Germany that's very important because we are like the car manufacturer of the world or were used to be a car manufacturer?

00:24:36: No!

00:24:36: We're still come out yet.

00:24:38: so we use to be.

00:24:39: and what's going on in China?

00:24:41: So BYD last week just announced their new blade battery system, as well as their supercharging systems.

00:24:49: So this is actually very impressive where they can go from zero to eighty percent in five minutes... I don't know exactly that but ten percent, ten percent to eighty-percent charge and five minutes right?

00:25:04: And it's a charge to give you a thousand kilometers of range so essentially plenty for almost anyone.

00:25:14: And then here's the very interesting part is that most people say, oh but you know.

00:25:19: The last twenty percent as the hardest part.

00:25:21: they can go from twenty percent to ninety seven percent in nine minutes right.

00:25:27: and Then it was a all-but-but.

00:25:28: in cold weather It doesn't work.

00:25:29: and then this day showed They went to minus twenty C the temperature Went down to twenty percent and they went from Twenty percent two ninety Seven percent in a minus twenty degree see?

00:25:41: So I think it is a breakthrough, and its using traditional LFP batteries.

00:25:53: It's not using some kind of new material This very affordable cheap battery that can now do all this with fast charging And long range.

00:26:04: so Its impressive whats happening affordable, and also a lot less of the battery fear anxiety that people have.

00:26:19: So it makes sense I think for German automakers to start talking to BYD more maybe do some kind of partnership or maybe license this technology because they definitely

00:26:34: Okay, I will call these guys later on to tell them maybe they should call you that.

00:26:39: You can explain it again and then

00:26:42: They probably already know the news.

00:26:43: this is a very big news in the auto space.

00:26:47: Yeah, well this is so incredible.

00:26:49: Years ago we went to China to see the museum and to see The Great Wall And now there's innovation, innovation, AI and all that stuff.

00:26:58: You know it really incredible what you're telling.

00:27:01: In every session here We are talking about more or less twenty-thirty percent About china in a good way an interesting way

00:27:12: I think.

00:27:15: In fact, I don't know if you know but last week was the two sessions.

00:27:19: It's kind of a big yearly planning session for China and in fact they also released their five-year plan.

00:27:24: And then there are five year plans where AI is mentioned more than fifty times.

00:27:30: Yeah so this part of national strategy right?

00:27:33: What we're going to focus on it.

00:27:35: So its very impressive to see government so progressive and technology savvy.

00:27:43: But it's interesting that you are telling us at fifty times AI because here in the news, do You know what people were talking about?

00:27:51: What

00:27:52: now?

00:27:52: there is no a big growth anymore.

00:27:54: That the grosses only two or three percent and that's nothing.

00:27:57: And they said okay The former time when this economy was growing seven eight percent over and so more or less well It's not So important anymore.

00:28:08: There was the main message here in Germany.

00:28:11: Yeah, so I mean you know...I think the different parts of world have a different focus.

00:28:16: But thing that i want is to understand.

00:28:22: it's not important who invents technology.

00:28:26: The most important things are who deploys this technology and defuses it into industry or economy.

00:28:33: Right, so it is invented in China and its available.

00:28:37: And you can license them to the market?

00:28:39: Great!

00:28:40: You should do that.

00:28:40: We just talked about batteries technology Why not?

00:28:43: Who invented this?

00:28:45: So even though Europe right now is behind in the invention side there's no reason they shouldn't be behind on the diffusion side.

00:28:54: In fact, if anything I think because of the industrial might and infrastructure that Germany has it is in a very good position to deploy robotics ,to deploy all this automation .

00:29:07: To also deploy AI into office work Because of the good social safety net It allows you be deployed without creating employment or economic shock.

00:29:19: You look at America, I don't know if you saw last week the Jack Dorsey announcement from Block.

00:29:25: They laid out forty percent of their workers overnight right?

00:29:30: Well they say it's because and i probably believe them but day, the stock went up twenty five percent.

00:29:40: And what that shows is at this stock market rewards to decision to lay people off.

00:29:46: so there's no sympathy or empathy for human employment in America right?

00:29:52: This will be a big issue because when AI becomes more capable and it has become increasingly able every diffuse into industry, enterprises.

00:30:04: And if everybody takes these decisions to lay out forty or fifty percent of their employees overnight that economic shock is going create major instabilities in the American market.

00:30:17: I see a lot less cases like Germany and most Europe where there's more protection for labor.

00:30:27: But I think there is no alternative to use new technology, be in the market and have success on a global market.

00:30:36: And that was for me first time good news two minutes ago when you said deploy it?

00:30:42: You must invent it!

00:30:45: We still in Germany we had an opportunity the new technology, because we are here engineers.

00:30:53: We're in a good shape with that and maybe for this session it's a good news to end.

00:31:01: That is still there.

00:31:03: And then we have opportunities if we adapt The new things in this broadcast too.

00:31:11: Yeah, exactly the key is does not matter where it's invented if its good for you use it deploy.

00:31:17: that's going to grow the economy.

00:31:19: now I think getting into a higher maybe not back to seven or eight percent but getting at high two three four percent as very viable type of goal.

00:31:30: If leadership is really leveraging what coming versus being afraid.

00:31:37: Yeah, we have had it in our dope on the name of magazine.

00:31:40: We've shown more than thirty entrepreneurs with best cases and they are happy with that And its starting.

00:31:47: It's emerging.

00:31:49: So let us talk about this next month how to solve problems How find solutions and be more profitability.

00:32:00: That is a challenge for me.

00:32:02: Thank you very much.

00:32:04: And it's always great to talk to you and let us look at what is happening.

00:32:09: in the next fourteen days I will have been in Austin, maybe...and i would love that war is over.

00:32:18: one big thing will end.

00:32:22: thankyou again!

00:32:23: Always great talking with you.

00:32:26: Yeah,

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00:32:34: And see you next time.

00:32:37: Thank You very much.

00:32:38: share with your friends.